Forecasting without the guesswork

A forecast is a promise. Keeping it starts with separating what you know from what you hope.

Weight by stage, then adjust

Start with a simple model: each stage carries a probability based on your own history. For many small teams the numbers land close to this:

• Lead: 10 percent
• Qualified: 25 percent
• Proposal: 50 percent
• Negotiation: 75 percent

Multiply each open deal's value by its stage weight and add them up. That is your weighted pipeline.

Check it against win rate

Your trailing win rate is the reality check. If your weighted pipeline says you will close 60 percent of open value and your team historically wins 30 percent, the stages are too generous.

Commit, best case, pipeline

Ask each rep to sort their deals into three buckets. Commit means signed paperwork is expected this month. Best case means it could close with one more push. Pipeline is everything else.

Review weekly

Forecasts drift. A weekly 20 minute review, looking only at deals that changed, keeps everyone honest without eating the calendar.